The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.75-4.00% on 28 October 2026, and the headline sounds like a non-event. The detail that most coverage skips is in the vote: 10-2, with both dissenters, Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, voting for a rate hike rather than a cut.

 

For Indonesia the timing is awkward. Bank Indonesia held its own rate on 21 October and cut bank reserve requirements, and it said then that a further US rate increase was likely. With Web3 Week Asia, a two-day crypto and blockchain event in Jakarta on 11-12 November 2026, only 13 days away, the question for the region is how long that policy gap can hold.

 

Figures below are as of 07:15 WIB on 29 October 2026.

 

Decision. The Federal Open Market Committee kept the federal funds target range at 3.75-4.00%, announced at 2:00 p.m. EDT on 28 October 2026, about 01:00 WIB on 29 October.

 

Vote. 10-2. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack both preferred a 0.25 percentage point increase, according to the Fed statement.

 

Wording. The statement says economic activity is "expanding at a strong pace" and inflation "remains elevated".

 

Market. Bitcoin traded in a range of roughly US$80,300 to US$81,700 on 28 October, according to CoinGecko-based and exchange-based reports. Spot bitcoin ETFs took in about US$286 million across 26 and 27 October.

 

Next date. The next Fed meeting is 8-9 December 2026, after Web3 Week Asia.

 

What the Fed actually decided

 

The Fed raised rates by 0.25 percentage point on 16 September 2026, taking the range to 3.75-4.00%. The 28 October decision leaves it there. That is a pause after a hike, not a pause in a cutting cycle, which is why the dissents matter.

 

The statement text moved in a hawkish direction. It describes activity as "strong", and one report notes the September wording was "solid". The same report says the statement dropped earlier language tying a hike to a return of inflation to target, and now says the Committee will gather more information to set the stance needed to bring inflation back to 2 percent.

 

Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking after the decision, said it is the Fed's responsibility to get inflation down and that politics played no role, according to Bitcoin Foundation. Another outlet, AirdropAlert, quotes him saying price stability is not tied to a fixed calendar date, which keeps December open. Each of these quotes comes from one outlet and is attributed accordingly.

 

Why two dissents matter more than the hold

 

Two members wanted to raise rates now. Bitcoin Foundation and KuCoin News both report that a Fed governor and a regional bank president had not dissented together on the same side since 1992. That is a reported historical comparison, not one this article could confirm against Fed archives.

 

Why it matters: a hold with hawkish dissents tells markets the next move is more likely up than down. Before the decision, CME FedWatch gave roughly 90% odds of no change, per Bitcoin Foundation, and pricing for a December increase was reported at above 70% by one outlet and near three in four by another. That is market pricing, not a Fed commitment, and it moves with every data release.

 

How crypto reacted

 

The reaction was small. Per KuCoin News, bitcoin briefly rose to about US$81,700 after the announcement, dipped below US$80,500, then recovered toward US$81,000. Bitcoin Foundation put bitcoin near US$81,087 at 22:28 UTC on 28 October, up about 0.31% over 24 hours. Crypto.news showed US$80,771, up 0.47%, with a daily range of US$80,334 to US$81,636.

 

The spread between sources is about US$700, which is a timing difference, not a disagreement about direction. A move of under 1% over 24 hours does not meet any threshold for a market shock. ETF flows were positive: US$110 million on 26 October and US$176 million on 27 October, which sum to US$286 million.

 

The honest counterweight

 

The data does not show a crypto reaction to the hawkish dissents. Bitcoin moved less than 1% in 24 hours. Price action on the evening of a decision cannot tell us how crypto will behave if a December hike materialises.

 

The data does not show that Fed rates drive Indonesian crypto volumes. This article found no study establishing that relationship for Indonesian exchanges, so none is claimed.

 

The data does not show a December hike is certain. Market pricing of 70% to roughly 75% is a probability, and Warsh has said price stability is not tied to a fixed date. Pricing can flip with a single inflation or jobs report.

 

Indonesia crypto: a 175-200 basis point cushion with a deadline

 

Bank Indonesia announced on 21 October 2026 that it held the BI-Rate at 5.75% and the Lending Facility rate at 6.50%, and raised the Deposit Facility rate to 5.00%. It also cut reserve requirements for conventional banks from 9% to 8% effective 1 November and to 7% effective 1 December, and for sharia banks from 7.5% to 6.5% and then 5.5% on the same dates.

 

The arithmetic: 5.75% minus the Fed's upper bound of 4.00% is 1.75 percentage points, and minus the lower bound of 3.75% is 2.00 points. If the Fed raises 0.25 point in December to 4.00-4.25%, the gap narrows to 1.50-1.75 points, all else equal.

 

On the rupiah, Bank Indonesia reported a close of Rp17,985 per US dollar on 20 October 2026, 0.61% weaker than at the end of September, citing Middle East tensions, tighter US monetary policy and equity sentiment. It also said there is a strong likelihood of a further increase in the US policy rate. This is the Bank Indonesia view, based on its own release, and no 28-29 October rupiah close is cited here because it could not be verified.

 

For Indonesia crypto, the practical link is liquidity and currency. A weaker rupiah raises the local-currency cost of dollar-linked assets, and bank liquidity changes can shift funding conditions. Whether those effects reach exchange volumes is not established by the data in this article.

 

Web3 Week Asia 2026: blockchain event in Jakarta, 11-12 November

 

Web3 Week Asia is a crypto and blockchain event in Jakarta on 11-12 November 2026, covering markets, regulation, infrastructure and venture investment across Southeast Asia. Its four tracks are Investor Meetups, Alpha Callers, Web3 Entrepreneur and Indonesia Crypto Outlook 2026.

 

The Fed and Bank Indonesia decisions will already be in the books by then, and the US midterm elections on 3 November will have happened. That makes the event a natural point to take stock of how rates, regulation and capital flows are reshaping the Indonesia crypto market. According to the organisers, the 2025 edition drew more than 5,000 participants, over 100 speakers and more than 200 companies from more than 10 countries. The 2026 speaker line-up is to be announced.

 

Frequently asked questions

 

When and where is Web3 Week Asia 2026?

 

Web3 Week Asia 2026 takes place on 11-12 November 2026 in Jakarta, Indonesia. It is a two-day crypto and blockchain event covering markets, regulation, infrastructure and venture investment across Southeast Asia.

 

What did the Federal Reserve decide on 28 October 2026?

 

The Fed kept the federal funds target range at 3.75-4.00% on a 10-2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented, both preferring a 0.25 percentage point increase.

 

Did bitcoin react to the Fed decision?

 

Only modestly. Reports put bitcoin between roughly US$80,300 and US$81,700 on 28 October, with a 24-hour change below 1%. Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded about US$286 million of inflows on 26 and 27 October combined.

 

Is a Fed rate hike in December certain?

 

No. Market pricing before and after the decision implied a December hike at roughly 70% to 75%, but that is a probability and not a Fed decision. The next meeting is 8-9 December 2026.

 

How does the Fed decision relate to Bank Indonesia's rate?

 

Bank Indonesia held the BI-Rate at 5.75% on 21 October 2026, which is 1.75 to 2.00 percentage points above the Fed's range. Bank Indonesia said a further US rate increase was likely.

 

Sources

 

Federal Reserve FOMC statement, 28 October 2026: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm

 

Bank Indonesia news release, 21 October 2026: https://www.bi.go.id/en/publikasi/ruang-media/news-release/Pages/sp_2823326.aspx

 

The rate range, vote, dissenters and wording come from the Federal Reserve statement of 28 October 2026 and were matched by crypto.news, Bitcoin Foundation, KuCoin News, AirdropAlert and Bitscoins. Bitcoin prices come from crypto.news, Bitcoin Foundation (citing CoinGecko), KuCoin News and Bitscoins on 28 October 2026. ETF flows come from KuCoin News and Bitscoins, and Bitcoin Foundation reports the same US$286 million total. The 1992 comparison is from Bitcoin Foundation and KuCoin News. Warsh quotes are from Bitcoin Foundation and AirdropAlert. Bank Indonesia policy rates, reserve requirement changes and rupiah data of 20 October 2026 come from the Bank Indonesia release of 21 October 2026, with the rate hold and reserve requirement changes matched by Trading Economics.

 

Methodology: Spreads were computed as the BI-Rate of 5.75% minus the Fed range bounds (4.00% and 3.75%), and the December scenario assumes exactly a 0.25 point hike. The ETF total is 110 plus 176 million US dollars. Bitcoin prices from different outlets were given as a range and not averaged because timestamps differ. December hike odds were given as a range because sources used different wording and no exact figure was available. Excluded: one-source rupiah levels after 20 October, September inflation (single source), and any claim that Fed policy causes changes in Indonesian exchange volumes.

 

This article is for information only and is not investment advice